A $100 bounty today or 25% of a $60 subscription every month? The answer depends on how many customers cancel, how long the program keeps paying, and how soon you need the money.
The one formula you need
A referred customer is worth the commission per payment multiplied by the number of payments you can expect. If a share c of customers cancels each month and the program pays for at most N months, the expected number of payments is:
1 + (1 − c) + (1 − c)² + … up to N terms, which equals (1 − (1 − c)N) ÷ c
For a lifetime program, it simplifies to 1 ÷ c. At 5% monthly cancellations, the average customer makes 20 payments.
Expected payments at common churn rates
| Monthly cancellations | Capped at 12 months | Lifetime |
|---|---|---|
| 3% | 10.2 payments | 33.3 payments |
| 5% | 9.2 payments | 20 payments |
| 8% | 7.9 payments | 12.5 payments |
So 25% of a $60 plan, $15 a payment, is worth about $138 per customer under a 12-month cap at 5% churn, and about $300 if the program pays for life. Against those figures, a $100 one-time bounty looks very different than it does at first glance.
When one-time wins anyway
- High-ticket bounties. $200 for a hosting or SEO-suite sale beats most recurring shares of cheaper products.
- Customers who don’t stay. If your audience tries tools and moves on, high churn shrinks recurring value fast.
- Cash now. Recurring income builds slowly. In month one, a recurring program pays only its first payment; by month twelve, it is paying for twelve groups of customers at once.
The risk nobody prices in: terms change
A lifetime commission is only as permanent as the program. Brands revise structures, move platforms, cap payment periods or close programs. Semrush is a well-known example: its long-running BeRush program, which paid recurring commissions, closed in January 2023 when the company moved to Impact and fixed bounties. Most programs reserve the right to change terms with notice, and some apply changes to existing referrals.
Discount recurring income in your planning. A sensible habit is to value lifetime commissions at no more than two or three years of payments, whatever the program says.
A balanced portfolio
Most durable affiliate businesses mix the two: recurring programs for compounding income, and strong one-time programs for cash flow and diversification. Spread revenue across several brands so a single change of terms can’t sink you.
Run your numbers: the commission calculator models recurring months, churn and refunds month by month. Filter the directory by payout model to compare.